Why We Still Need the Electoral College

The March 6 Super-Tuesday presidential primary is forecast to have widely different results for candidates in different regions. It highlights our founders’ wisdom in establishing the Electoral College. In the wake of the 2000 election where Al Gore won the popular vote and George W. Bush was elected President after recounts in Florida, many argued for its elimination.

Pitched battles over a few votes that sway the outcome of an important election are not productive. This is a rare event, however, and the advantages of keeping the Electoral College outweigh the disadvantages.

Deliberate intent

After the 1787 constitutional convention, when asked what kind of government America had created, Ben Franklin replied, “A republic, if you can keep it.” The founders deliberately made a republic with elected representatives making most decisions. They knew that many republics had collapsed because of direct democracy so they deliberately distanced most decision making from the people.

Their solution was three branches of government and two legislative bodies: the lower house would have representation by population with elections every two years. The upper house was to be more deliberative: two representatives per state with six year terms, with only a third of it being up for election.

Senators were originally elected by the state legislatures, not directly by the people. This was changed in 1913 with the ratification of the 17th Amendment. This has changed the course of U.S. history and some are arguing today for its repeal.

The President is elected by winner take all votes of each state’s Electors, equal to the total number of representatives in Congress. States with low populations (Wyoming, South Dakota, Alaska, etc.) have 3 electoral votes and thus a larger say per person than large states like California, New York and Texas.

Many factions guarantee liberty for all

In the Federalist papers, James Madison said “Liberty is to faction as air is to fire.” Some thought America was too diverse (North, South, and the frontier West) to hold together. Madison argued that the more factions and different interests there were, the more likely liberty for everyone could be maintained. No single group could become strong enough to maintain power over the majority.

This has happened throughout American history. The longest serving Presidents from one political party since Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and John Quincy Adams (1801-1828) were FDR and Truman (1933-53), though the unifying events of the Great Depression and World War Two. Ranking of Presidents’ effectiveness in polls correlates highly with whether their party has a majority in Congress. The Democrats had a majority in the House of Representatives from 1933-94 with the exception of one term in 1947-8, the longest any one party has held power of a house in Congress.

Regional Differences

America is not as diverse geographically and economically as it once was. The evil of slavery has been abolished; the frontier has been settled. But we still have farm and manufacturing states, places were water rights determine the value of land, and energy producing states. We all consume energy; it is the oil of our economy.

We are still very diverse culturally. Some areas have large Hispanic and Asian immigrant populations. Others have many second and third generation immigrants and still others have large Native American populations. Religious beliefs vary widely by region and between individuals living within those regions. It is our unity in diversity that is America’s strength.

What would happen if we eliminated the Electoral College

Big cities with TV ads would get all the attention, requiring lots of money to campaign. It would squeeze out lesser known candidates, who might gain support because of their good ideas.

Voter fraud would likely increase. Going to a popular nationwide vote would increase the incentives for stuffing the ballot box.

Regional insults are inappropriate, whether they come from the President “they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them” or from us, “Ohhh, you’re from Kentucky.” Many open-minded people in western Pennsylvania and small towns throughout the Midwest are still smarting from that. We’re all Americans, regardless of where we’re from, our income level, our beliefs or our accent.

Commentator Hugh Hewitt thinks President Obama’s coalition in the purple states like Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania is unraveling and these states may go red in the fall. If we had a nationwide popular vote, none of that would matter; elections would likely go to those with the most money to advertise in the big city media markets to get the most votes.

Application to Presidential Primaries

The March 6 primary shows the importance of appealing to a broad spectrum of Americans. Newt Gingrich is forecast to win his home state of Georgia but is not likely to do well elsewhere. He’s challenging the others to debate him in Mississippi or Alabama, further proving he has only regional appeal. Ron Paul is only polling above 20% in Virginia where he and Romney are the only two on the ballot in the winner take all primary.

The two major candidates running national campaigns, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney, are locked in a battle over swing state Ohio, despite Romney outspending Santorum 12 to 1. The negative ads have done their work; Romney has closed the gap to a virtual tie as he did in Michigan.

Although President Obama leads all the Republican candidates in nationwide polls, both Santorum and Romney led Obama in a recent swing states poll: Santorum by 5 and Romney by 2 or 3 points.

The presidential sweepstakes begins in early January with the Iowa caucuses. Supporters go to evening town hall events and speak on behalf of their favorite candidate. Some go to caucus meetings undecided and are convinced by their neighbors’ speeches. Then comes the open New Hampshire primary, then South Carolina a few weeks later.

The national political parties make the rules and generally penalize states if they hold their primary before Super Tuesday. Last week’s Michigan primary was a tie: 14 delegates for Santorum and 14 for Romney (half the state’s normal delegates), chosen by the popular vote winner in each congressional district plus another two for Romney, who won the popular vote 41%-38% statewide.

While the Republicans are spending their campaign money defeating each other, President Obama held his 100th fundraiser on Wall Street, raising money at $35K per plate for his reelection campaign from the people he loves to demonize. That’s the advantage held by incumbents; they usually don’t have to spend money on primary challengers.

The Republicans will be unable to match his advertising spending in the fall election; they will have to count on patient truth-telling and the American people’s memory of the process used to pass Obamacare against their will to win the day.

Deceitful means to achieve good ends are never justified; it’s a slippery slope towards more tyranny. And the good end we all agree on is affordable health care for everyone, not “free” health insurance that is really government control of a large chunk of our economy, according to some.

Conclusion

The system we have, modified by direct election of Senators, is the best we can collectively think of. If we, the people, decide we want to change it, our constitution has a process to do that (Article V).

The presidential primary system depends on the rules of the political parties. As unfair as it seems that some states don’t get a say, it works pretty well because different regions are represented in the early going when costs are low and dark horses can emerge from the pack. No one noticed Rick Santorum until recently.

People from all over the country can contribute to campaigns to keep them viable as the costs increase. This seems better than having a single day when everyone votes and only those with the most money would have a chance.

I’d welcome your comments and opinions about the Electoral College and presidential primaries and caucuses.